June 2026: 3 in 3 with Jason Weaver
This month, Jason covers three topics in three minutes: how much room the bull market has left, what the recent wave of IPOs actually tells us, and why we’re extending duration in bond portfolios right now.
The bull market is younger than it feels. Since 1990, bull markets have averaged about seven years and returned roughly 330%. This one is just 3.6 years old and up about 124%, meaning there could be more room to run. It’s also earnings, not just optimism, driving it. The first quarter of 2026 was the strongest earnings season in nearly five years, with 7 of 11 S&P 500 sectors growing profits at double-digit rates. Margins are near a record 13%, and stocks have historically advanced in about 80% of years the economy is expanding, which it still is.
IPO headlines are bigger than the actual supply. SpaceX just priced the largest IPO on record, raising about $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. But only about 40 companies have gone public so far in 2026, well below the median of roughly 111 since 2000 and nowhere near the peaks of 1999 and 2021. Even record-setting deals are a small slice of the overall market. That’s a sign of a healthy market, not a frothy one.
We see extending duration in bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed from 3.9% to about 4.5% this year, making high-quality bonds the most attractive they’ve looked in a while. Starting yield has historically tracked closely with returns over the following five years, so locking in around 4.5% now is appealing, especially with cash carrying reinvestment risk if the Fed starts cutting rates.
Want to talk through what this means for your portfolio? Reach out anytime.