This month, Jason Weaver, discusses megatrends, the rules for megatrends and the implications of those today.
This month Jason Weaver covers the greatest stimulus of all time, physical vs digital economy and what is priced in to the market. The Fed's Actions to Date: They have cut interest rates to zero, established quantitative easing unlimited, bought corporate bonds and bought state & local bonds. Government Actions to Date: CARES Act They have made cash payments to individuals, expanded unemployment benefits, no required minimum distributions, PPP loans, loan forbearance and healthcare relief.
This month Jason covers the Anatomy of a Recession, including the three market punches, bottoming process and equity positioning. Arrival of the Coronavirus Cases started appearing in China at the end of 2019. Confirmed cases outside of China began to appear in January 2020. Economic war triggered in March 2020 by Saudi Arabia in response to Russia's refusal to reduce oil production in order to keep prices for oil at moderate level. The US began shutting down non-essential businesses to prevent the spread of COVID. Lack of business activity forced employers to let go/furlough many employees.
The Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented actions to save the economy during the coronavirus crisis. Below is a timeline of the major actions taken in the past 6 weeks. On 3/26, the Government passed a $ 2 trillion Coronavirus response bill intended to speed relief across the American economy known as the CARES Act. There are seven main groups that would see the widest-reaching impacts: individuals, small businesses, big corporations, hospitals and public health, federal safety net, state and local governments, and education.
Four Pillars of Recovery: Medical Professionals. We need to make sure they have safety and necessary supplies (testing kits, protective equipment, hospital beds, etc) to continue work. Back Stopping Small Businesses. Small businesses and their employees need to stay afloat as they are a massive part of the American economy. Availability of Credit. Make it easy for banks to lend and businesses to draw on their bank lines.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses the pandemic risks, the presidential cycle and secular trends. Pandemic risks are large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease that can greatly increase morbidity and mortality over a wide geographic area. They can cause significant economic, social, and political disruption.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses the election year, geopolitical risks and real estate. During an election year, the stock market typically rises no matter which party is in office.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses market sentiment, valuation measures and international valuations. Stock market returns are highly correlated to corporate earnings. However, high profits do not necessarily mean a high stock price. And big losses do not always lead to a low stock price. The stock market can outpace earnings if it expects future earnings to grow.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses U.S. and China trade dispute, tariff impact and business and consumer spending. In 2018, President Trump started imposing tariffs on China. The goal was to right some of the "unfair trade practices" such as growing trade deficit, theft of intellectual property and forced transfer of American technology in China.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses China slowdown, global recession and negative interest rates. China has been the single largest contributor of economic growth over the past several years. Currently, their economic data is pointing to a significant slowdown. Historically, 3% was used as a threshold for a global recession. Bloomberg’s global GDP tracker shows that expansion has slowed about a 2.2% growth in the third quarter.