This month’s update covers three key forces shaping markets: geopolitical events, stagflation risk, and rising oil prices. While recent developments may create short-term uncertainty, history and current data provide helpful context for long-term investors.
This month, Jason is going over the outlook for 2026, including S&P 500 targets, the landscape for fixed income this year, and interest rate projections.
In this November 2025 market update, we address the nature of recent volatility to help investors maintain a long-term perspective. It is crucial for investors to remain objective during these periods, as market pullbacks are a frequent and healthy component of the investment cycle. Historical data over the past 85 years indicates that 5% corrections have occurred in 94% of all years. Deeper 10% corrections happen approximately every 18 months and typically last about four months. Importantly, only about 20% to 25% of these corrections ever evolve into a true bear market. While short-term monthly returns often show extreme volatility, the long-term trajectory of major indices like the S&P 500 has historically trended upward, rewarding those who stay the course rather than reacting to fear.
The U.S. job market is showing clear signs of cooling as of October 2025, with a national unemployment rate at 4.3% and notably low August job growth of just 22,000 positions. Hiring trends have begun to flatten, and initial unemployment claims remain stable, signaling a shift in labor market dynamics. These softer economic readings have led to increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with one to two 25 basis point reductions anticipated by year-end. As of June 2025, there are approximately seven million unemployed individuals, and analysts are
REITs—equity, mortgage, and hybrid—offer liquid, exchange-traded access to real estate under SEC oversight. Historically, they’ve delivered competitive total returns, meaningful income (≈11.4% average annualized since 2000 per your figures), and diversification versus stocks and bonds.
As of 2025, the top 10 companies make up roughly 38% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization, a sharp increase from about 17% in 2015. This concentration means that the index’s performance is now disproportionately driven by a handful of mega-cap stocks,
Ongoing geopolitical conflicts have significantly impacted currency markets, leading to sharp moves and shifting safe-haven flows. The US dollar has been the world’s principal reserve currency since the end of World War II and is the most widely used currency for international trade.
