This month, Jason Weaver discusses the election year, geopolitical risks and real estate. During an election year, the stock market typically rises no matter which party is in office.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses market sentiment, valuation measures and international valuations. Stock market returns are highly correlated to corporate earnings. However, high profits do not necessarily mean a high stock price. And big losses do not always lead to a low stock price. The stock market can outpace earnings if it expects future earnings to grow.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses U.S. and China trade dispute, tariff impact and business and consumer spending. In 2018, President Trump started imposing tariffs on China. The goal was to right some of the "unfair trade practices" such as growing trade deficit, theft of intellectual property and forced transfer of American technology in China.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses China slowdown, global recession and negative interest rates. China has been the single largest contributor of economic growth over the past several years. Currently, their economic data is pointing to a significant slowdown. Historically, 3% was used as a threshold for a global recession. Bloomberg’s global GDP tracker shows that expansion has slowed about a 2.2% growth in the third quarter.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses economic indicators, the Federal Reserve toolbox, GDP and the consumer.
This month Jason Weaver discusses the bond sectors, consumer confidence and inverted yield curve. There are various bond cycles. here are: US Government Bonds including treasury, TIPs and agency. Mortage bonds include Pass-Thru, CMO and ARMs. Credit bonds include US Corporate, Asset Backed, Convertible, Municipal and Inflation Protected.
This month Jason Weaver discusses the Fed Policy, inflation components and asset class correlation. The Fed has been the primary driver of asset prices in 2019. The basic mandate is price stability (measured in inflation) and full employment. So, what is going on with the Fed? If you look back to July of 2018, the economy was doing very well. Inflation moved up to about 2.5-3.5% by October.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses demographics, GDP and debt levels. He also gives an update on the business cycle. If you look at real GDP in the United States, the real GDP is net of inflation. This peaked around the 70's and 80's, with the baby boom generation.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses late cycle, market capitalization and dividends. Late cycle breaks down into four phases: early cycle, late cycle, mid cycle and recession. Generally speaking, the wall street consensus is that the U.S. Economy is in late cycle. Characteristics are economic growth, profit margins, sales and high stock market multiples.
This month, April 2019, Jason Weaver discusses the earnings season, credit spreads and the yield curve. If you would like to subscribe to our monthly 3 in 3 videos, visit our YouTube channel below. At Weaver Consulting Group we’ve come to know through our clients that they like to stay informed about the economy and markets. This is why we’ve come up with “3 in 3.”