This month, Jason Weaver discusses the pandemic risks, the presidential cycle and secular trends.
Pandemic Risk
Pandemic risks are large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease that can greatly increase morbidity and mortality over a wide geographic area. They can cause significant economic, social, and political disruption.
Previous Examples of Pandemic Risks are:
SARS (2003)
Swine Flu (2009)
Ebola Breakout (2018)
Coronavirus (2019)…Potentially
While it is impossible to predict the extent, a virus can spread and have greater consequences than past epidemics, history indicates that the global economy and markets have been relatively immune to the effects of past epidemics.
Presidential Cycle
Historically, the 4th year of the President’s term is volatile in the 1st 6 months until there is certainty around the opposing political party’s candidate
THE CYCLE
YEARS 1 & 2:
The new President exits campaign mode and works hard to fulfill campaign promises
YEARS 3 & 4:
The President works hard to strengthen the economy in an effort to earn votes with economic stimuli, such as tax cuts and job creation.
Secular Trends
An economy or market trend associated with a characteristic or phenomenon that is not cyclical or seasonal but exists over a relatively long period. Secular movements can proceed in either a positive or negative direction.
Examples of Current Secular Trends
Solar Energy
E-Commerce
FinTech
Electric Cars
Cloud Computing
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