August 2020 – 3 in 3
This month, Jason Weaver … READ MORE
It has been 4.5 months since we all begun what we call our new normal. A time where you grab your keys, wallet and mask before you leave the house. Social distancing is practiced and sadly, gatherings have had to take a back seat. I think that we are all getting to a place where we are starting to ponder what the future looks like.
This month, Jason Weaver, discusses megatrends, the rules for megatrends and the implications of those today.
This month Jason Weaver covers the greatest stimulus of all time, physical vs digital economy and what is priced in to the market. The Fed's Actions to Date: They have cut interest rates to zero, established quantitative easing unlimited, bought corporate bonds and bought state & local bonds. Government Actions to Date: CARES Act They have made cash payments to individuals, expanded unemployment benefits, no required minimum distributions, PPP loans, loan forbearance and healthcare relief.
Weaver Consulting Group is a local, family owned, Registered Investment Advisory practice in Huntington Beach, California. We have been providing our expertise and sharing our experiences for the last 22 years.
This month Jason covers the Anatomy of a Recession, including the three market punches, bottoming process and equity positioning. Arrival of the Coronavirus Cases started appearing in China at the end of 2019. Confirmed cases outside of China began to appear in January 2020. Economic war triggered in March 2020 by Saudi Arabia in response to Russia's refusal to reduce oil production in order to keep prices for oil at moderate level. The US began shutting down non-essential businesses to prevent the spread of COVID. Lack of business activity forced employers to let go/furlough many employees.
In the past 105 years, the stock market has experienced 14 "waterfall" corrections: a sharp decline in equity prices over a 2 month period. The Covid-19 correction is my 5th waterfall correction in 23 years as an advisor. As I get older, I tend to remember only the most significant events in my life. And, I can honestly say, I remember each and every one of these past corrections.
The Federal Reserve has taken unprecedented actions to save the economy during the coronavirus crisis. Below is a timeline of the major actions taken in the past 6 weeks. On 3/26, the Government passed a $ 2 trillion Coronavirus response bill intended to speed relief across the American economy known as the CARES Act. There are seven main groups that would see the widest-reaching impacts: individuals, small businesses, big corporations, hospitals and public health, federal safety net, state and local governments, and education.
Four Pillars of Recovery: Medical Professionals. We need to make sure they have safety and necessary supplies (testing kits, protective equipment, hospital beds, etc) to continue work. Back Stopping Small Businesses. Small businesses and their employees need to stay afloat as they are a massive part of the American economy. Availability of Credit. Make it easy for banks to lend and businesses to draw on their bank lines.
This month, Jason Weaver discusses the pandemic risks, the presidential cycle and secular trends. Pandemic risks are large-scale outbreaks of infectious disease that can greatly increase morbidity and mortality over a wide geographic area. They can cause significant economic, social, and political disruption.