Jason Weaver discusses valuations and interest rates, margins, fundamentals and positioning.
VALUATIONS AND INTEREST RATES
As interest rates rise investors can earn higher yields by investing in debt (bonds), rather than equities (stocks)
Over the long run, there is significant inverse correlation between stock valuations and interest rates.
Generally, higher rates result in low stock valuations and vice versa.
1/1/23 S&P 500 P/E: 21.08 (estimate)
1/1/23 10 Year Treasury: 3.88%
1/1/21 S&P 500 P/E: 35.96
1/1/21 10 Year Treasury: 0.92%
MARGINS
Profit margins are shrinking, squeezed by inflation and a slower economic outloo
Most companies face a slowing growth rate in their revenues while at the same time inflation continues to increase the cost of inputs.
So far, the S&P 500 Q4 2022 net profit margin is 11.3% which is below Q3 2022 11.9% profit margin and below Q4 2021 12.4% profit margin
FUNDAMENTALS AND POSITIONING
Fundamentals, earnings and diversification will be important in 2023
Analysts expect earnings declines for the first half of 2023, but earnings growth for the second half of 2023
Utilities (86%) has the most companies reporting Q4 earnings above estimates; Communications (48%) has the least companies reporting Q4 earnings above estimates.
82% of companies that have issued Q1 2023 guidance have issued negative guidance.
Technology & industrials sectors have the highest number of negative issuances.