Our Insights


This month, Jason Weaver discusses bonds, earnings recession and jobs.




2023 Starting yields are the highest in years

The bulk of the Fed tightening cycle is over

Prices typically fall when interest rates rise

Inflation is continuing to decline

Bond market yields are attractive relative to many other income investments



Corporate earnings estimates remain relatively high

Expected earnings recession from

  • Higher costs
  • Lower margins
  • Higher interest rates
  • Lower consumer spending

Earnings downgrades outnumbered upgrades in 2022

3rd step in HOPE Framework



Unemployment is likely to rise in 2023

The Fed forecasts unemployment could rise next year to 4.6% from   its current 3.5%.

Earnings reports will also be watched for further evidence of layoffs

Most pronounced in Tech

Amazon, Salesforce, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Netflix have   all begun to layoff

Last Step in HOPE