Our Insights


This month Jason Weaver discusses S&P 500 inflection points, interest rate environmental performance and international stock P/Es.



S&P 500 Inflection Points

Valuation matters.

The last time that the market P/E ratio was above 20 and 10-yr treasury was above 4% was right before the tech bubble burst in 2000.

At market troughs in 2002 & 2009, Forward P/Es were well below long term averages even though earnings were depressed


Interest Rate Environmental Performance

During lower rate environments, growth tends to outperform value.

As interest rates rise, this outperformance narrows, with value outperforming growth in a >5% interest rate environment.

International Stocks P/Es

International stock have historically always traded at a discount relative to the US

20 Yr SPX Avg P/E:15.6

20 Yr International Avg P/E: 13.1


International equities are trading at a significant discount right now

Current SPX P/E: 20.5

Current International P/E: 13.4