Our Insights


This month Jason Weaver discusses the stay at home growth, inflation and the H.O.P.E framework.




GDP is the key indicator of economic growth and activity
Q1 & Q2 2022 decreased at rates of -1.6% & -0.6% respectively
Most recessions need 2 negative quarters of growth and 0.5% uptick in unemployment
The Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecasts projects Q3 GDP to be +2.9% (as of 10/19/2022)


CPI is the most commonly cited measure of inflation
CPI uses a basket of goods and services to track price changes for consumers
Economist focus on Core CPI to measure the underlying trend in inflation
Core CPI excludes food and energy
Inflation remains at 4 decade highs and continues to weigh on economic growth and household budgets


HOPE gives a roadmap for how the Economy responds to changes in rates

H = Housing

1st to slow and serves as a great leading indicator

O = Orders

2nd to slow and tracked with ISM data

P = Profits

3rd to slow tracked as companies report earnings

E = Employment

Last to slow, usually the most lagging part of the economy